Future Wine Zones

About Future Wine Zones

A hobby project, made for the fun of it — no company, no ads, nothing for sale, nothing tracked.

Feedback welcome, whether it's features, bugs, corrections or just hello:
cheers [at] futurewinezones [dot] com
Written that way to deter spam bots — swap the brackets for the usual symbols.

Each coloured cell is classified by its growing season temperature (GST) — the average across the seven growing months (April–October in the north, October–April in the south). It's the standard measure of a region's wine climate.

Climate zones

Too cold <13°C — grapes can't ripen reliably
Cool 13–16.5°C — Riesling, Pinot Noir, sparkling
Moderate 16.5–18.5°C — Chardonnay, Merlot, Sangiovese
Warm 18.5–21°C — Cabernet Sauvignon, Syrah, Tempranillo
Hot 21–24°C — Grenache, Mourvèdre, fortified styles
Too hot >24°C — unsuitable for quality wine grapes

By default only the suitable band (13–24°C) is shown. Turn on "Show all zones" in the menu for the full picture.

Data

1970–2020 (observed) — WorldClim historical monthly weather from CRU TS 4.09, as 5-year averages.
2025 (projected) — fitted from the observed 2010–2024 trend.
2030–2100 (modelled) — WorldClim CMIP6, model ACCESS-CM2, interpolated between 20-year periods.

Emissions scenarios

From 2030 you can switch pathway. Earlier years are observed, so the choice has no effect there.

Optimistic (SSP1-2.6) — aggressive mitigation, ~+1.5°C by 2100
Intermediate (SSP2-4.5) — moderate, current policies, ~+2.7°C (default)
Pessimistic (SSP5-8.5) — no mitigation, ~+4.4°C

Why the projections run warm

All three scenarios use ACCESS-CM2, a high-sensitivity model. IPCC AR6 uses it to represent a high-warming storyline (around 4.8°C, the top of the very likely range), not a central estimate. This is the known CMIP6 "hot model" problem.

The bias is in the model, not any one scenario — all three run warm, most in absolute terms under SSP5-8.5. The comparison between scenarios stays valid; the absolute temperatures sit at the warm end.

Limitations

This shows temperature only. Real suitability also depends on sunshine, rainfall, disease pressure, frost, soil and aspect. A region can be temperature-suitable yet impractical. Future years are projections with real uncertainty. This is an illustration of climate trends, not a planting recommendation.

Sources & citation

WorldClim 2.1 — Fick & Hijmans (2017), Int. J. Climatology 37(12):4302–4315. Used under non-commercial terms.
CRU TS 4.09 — Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia.
CMIP6 / ACCESS-CM2 — CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, under the WCRP's CMIP6.
Variety ranges — after Jones, G.V. (2006), with adjustments.
Base map — © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), tiles © CARTO. Library — Leaflet (BSD-2). Type — Inter, Playfair Display (SIL OFL).

A personal, non-commercial project. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Wine & Spirit Education Trust (WSET); "WSET" is their trademark, used only to identify the classification followed here. Nor affiliated with WorldClim, CARTO or OpenStreetMap.

Grape varieties & temperature ranges

Suitable where growing-season temperature is in range. Green = white grapes, red = black grapes. After Jones (2006), sunshine-adjusted; sparkling is a style.

● Sparkling wine	11–15.5°C
● Pinot Meunier	12.5–15°C
● Riesling	13.5–16°C
● Gewürztraminer	13.5–16°C
● Grüner Veltliner	13.5–16.5°C
● Pinot Gris	14–16.5°C
● Pinot Noir	14–16.5°C
● Sauvignon Blanc	14–17.5°C
● Chenin Blanc	14–18°C
● Semillon	14–19.5°C
● Cabernet Franc	14.5–18.5°C
● Chardonnay	14.5–19°C
● Merlot	15–19.5°C
● Nebbiolo	15.5–19°C
● Barbera	15.5–19.5°C
● Tempranillo	15.5–20.5°C
● Carménère	16–19.5°C
● Viognier	16.5–20.5°C
● Malbec	16.5–20.5°C
● Sangiovese	16.5–21°C
● Syrah / Shiraz	16.5–21°C
● Cabernet Sauvignon	16.8–20.2°C
● Zinfandel / Primitivo	17.5–22°C
● Touriga Nacional	18.5–21.5°C
● Grenache	18.5–22.5°C
● Mourvèdre / Mataro	18.5–23°C

Related projects

Also worth a look: grapeclimate.com and winemap.eurac.edu (Eurac Research).

Future Wine Zones was built independently and is not affiliated with or derived from either; any similarity reflects the shared climate science.

Privacy

No cookies, no analytics, nothing collected. No accounts, no forms. The map, fonts and code all come from this domain.

Two exceptions: the background tiles come from CARTO, which sees your IP (their policy), and Cloudflare keeps standard server logs, as every web server does.

An IP is personal data under GDPR: the basis is legitimate interest in serving the site, it isn't used to profile you, and it goes no further than those two.