About Future Wine Zones

How the climate zones and grape suitability are calculated — and what they do and don't tell you.

About this project

This is a hobby project — built for the fun of it, and out of curiosity about how the world's wine regions might shift as the climate changes. There's no company behind it, no advertising, nothing for sale, and nothing tracked.

Feedback is very welcome: ideas for features, bugs you've run into, corrections to the science, or just a note to say hello. Write to cheers [at] futurewinezones [dot] com — spelled out that way to keep the spam bots off, so swap the brackets for the usual symbols.

What the map shows

Each coloured cell is classified by its Growing Season Temperature (GST) — the average temperature across the seven growing-season months (April–October in the Northern Hemisphere, October–April in the Southern). GST is the standard measure used in viticulture to describe a region's wine climate.

Climate zones (WSET-aligned)

Data sources

Data sources & citation

Future Wine Zones is a personal, non-commercial project. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to the Wine & Spirit Education Trust (WSET); "WSET" is their registered trademark and is used here only to identify the climate classification the map follows. Nor is it affiliated with WorldClim, CARTO, or OpenStreetMap.

Emissions scenarios

From 2030 onward you can switch between three IPCC pathways. Years up to 2025 are observed or trend-projected, so the choice has no effect there — but the selector stays available so you can set a pathway before playing the timeline.

Comparing the same year across scenarios is the clearest way to see what emissions choices mean for where wine can be grown.

Why the projections run warm

All three scenarios use a single climate model, ACCESS-CM2, and it is a high-sensitivity model — it warms more for a given amount of greenhouse gas than the middle of the evidence supports. IPCC AR6 itself uses ACCESS-CM2 as one of five models representing a physically plausible high-warming storyline (around 4.8°C, the upper bound of the very likely range), rather than as a central estimate.

This is the known CMIP6 "hot model" problem: the current model generation spans an unusually wide climate sensitivity range (roughly 1.8–5.6°C for a doubling of CO₂), and high-sensitivity models are over-represented in it. Their outcomes can't be ruled out, but they are better read as "low likelihood, high warming" than as the expected case — which is why AR6 weighted models by sensitivity instead of using a raw multi-model average.

What this means for the map. The bias is in the model, not in any one scenario — all three run warm. Because the same over-response is applied to larger forcing, the absolute overstatement is biggest under SSP5-8.5 and smallest under SSP1-2.6. Read SSP5-8.5 as a pessimistic upper bound rather than a forecast; it is also increasingly regarded as an unlikely pathway in its own right.

What stays reliable is the comparison. All three scenarios share the same model, so the direction, the ordering, and the widening gap between pathways over time reflect real physics. The absolute temperatures sit at the warm end of the plausible range.

Grape variety suitability

When a variety is selected, a cell is shown as suitable if its GST falls within that variety's preferred range, drawn from Gregory Jones' climate-maturity research and adjusted where high-latitude sunshine limits ripening in practice. The colour still reflects the underlying WSET zone, so you can see where a variety sits within its comfort window.

Water limits (suitability view)

In the Suitability view, hatching flags cells where rainfall — not temperature — is the constraint: desert (under 200mm/year), irrigation-dependent (under 400mm/year), and disease risk (over 600mm during the growing season, raising fungal pressure). Rainfall now follows the same timeline as temperature: observed CRU TS data to 2020, a 2021–2024 trend projection for 2025, and CMIP6 SSP2-4.5 projections beyond. Water limits are off by default — use the Water limits button to switch the hatching on.

Projected rainfall is considerably less reliable than projected temperature. Climate models agree closely on warming but diverge on regional rainfall — in many places even the direction of change is uncertain. Treat the future water flags as indicative only.

Important limitations

The overlay reflects growing-season temperature only. Real-world suitability also depends on sunshine hours, rainfall, humidity and disease pressure, spring-frost risk, soil, and slope aspect — none of which are shown here. A region can be temperature-suitable yet impractical for commercial production. Future years are model projections carrying genuine uncertainty, and interpolated 5-year steps are smooth estimates, not independent model runs. Treat the map as an illustration of climate trends, not a planting recommendation.

Tips

Grape varieties & temperature ranges

Each variety is shown as suitable where the growing-season temperature falls in the range below. Green dots are white grapes, red dots are black grapes. Ranges follow Jones (2006), adjusted where high-latitude sunshine limits ripening in practice; sparkling is treated as a style rather than a single grape.

Sparkling wine11–15.5°C
Pinot Meunier12.5–15°C
Riesling13.5–16°C
Gewürztraminer13.5–16°C
Grüner Veltliner13.5–16.5°C
Pinot Gris14–16.5°C
Pinot Noir14–16.5°C
Sauvignon Blanc14–17.5°C
Chenin Blanc14–18°C
Semillon14–19.5°C
Cabernet Franc14.5–18.5°C
Chardonnay14.5–19°C
Merlot15–19.5°C
Nebbiolo15.5–19°C
Barbera15.5–19.5°C
Tempranillo15.5–20.5°C
Carménère16–19.5°C
Viognier16.5–20.5°C
Malbec16.5–20.5°C
Sangiovese16.5–21°C
Syrah / Shiraz16.5–21°C
Cabernet Sauvignon16.8–20.2°C
Zinfandel / Primitivo17.5–22°C
Touriga Nacional18.5–21.5°C
Grenache18.5–22.5°C
Mourvèdre / Mataro18.5–23°C
Related projects

Two other efforts map wine and climate, and are well worth a look: grapeclimate.com and winemap.eurac.edu (Eurac Research).

Future Wine Zones was built independently and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or derived from either. Any resemblance in approach reflects the shared underlying climate science, not a connection between the projects.

Privacy

This site sets no cookies, runs no analytics, and collects nothing about you. There are no accounts, no forms, and nothing you do here is stored or sent anywhere. Everything — the map, the fonts, the code — is served from this domain.

Two exceptions, both unavoidable for a website to function. The map's background tiles are fetched from CARTO, which necessarily sees your IP address (see CARTO's privacy policy). And the host, Cloudflare, keeps standard server logs including IP addresses, as every web server does (see Cloudflare's privacy policy).

Under the GDPR an IP address counts as personal data, so: the lawful basis is legitimate interest in serving the site securely; the data isn't used to profile or track you; and it isn't shared beyond the two parties named above. Turning off the map tiles isn't possible without removing the map, but nothing else here phones home.

Questions, or want your details removed from the server logs? Contact the site owner via the domain's registered address.

Year 1970 observed
Grape / style
Scenario
View
Loading climate data…
Showing:
WSET Climate Zone
Too cold<13°C
Cool 13–16.5°C
Moderate16.5–18.5°C
Warm 18.5–21°C
Hot 21–24°C
Too hot >24°C
Water limits
Desert<200mm/yr
Irrigation<400mm/yr
Disease risk>600mm GS